Equilibrium enso5/2/2023 ![]() It can be accepted after the following comments are addressed: It is a novel work which furthers the understanding of ENSO predictability in the future. The study titled" Insignificant but robust decrease of ENSO predictability in an equilibrium warmer climate" investigates ENSO characteristics and predictability in a warmer climate. ![]() This could be due to model deficiencies in ENSO dynamics and limitations in persistence model when predicting ENSO. Our findings show that a robust and significant decrease in ENSO characteristics does not imply a similar change in ENSO predictability in a warmer climate. The maximal contribution to changes in the predictability of El Niño, La Niña and neutral states stems from changes in skewness and events' duration. While the overall changes in ENSO predictability are insignificant, we find significant relationships between changes in predictability and intensity, duration and skewness of the three individual ENSO states. Six-month persistence-assessed ENSO predictability slightly reduces in five models and increases in two models under the warming condition. Comparing the warmer climate to control simulations, ENSO variability weakens, with the neutral state lasts longer, while active ENSO states last shorter and skew to favor the La Niña state. We investigate changes in ENSO characteristics and predictability in idealized simulations with quadrupled CO 2 forcing from seven general circulation models. Responses of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming remain uncertain, which challenges ENSO forecasts in a warming climate.
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